EtG Risk Engine

Probabilistic analysis based on kidney function & hydration.

Beer (12oz, 5%)
Wine (5oz, 12%)
Shot (1.5oz, 40%)
+ Add Custom Drink (Craft Beer / Mixed)
Total Standard Drinks 0.0
Dilution Risk Detected Your hydration strategy combined with a short timeframe increases the risk of a "Dilute Negative" result (Creatinine < 20mg/dL). Labs may consider this a fail.

CALCULATING...

Risk of Detection Probability of Passing
0% Chance

Running 1,000 biological simulations...

Est. Peak BAC: 0.00%

Optimistic Clear Time (10%)

0h
If metabolism is fast

Conservative Clear Time (90%)

0h
If metabolism is slow

Disclaimer: These results are based on mathematical probabilities. Biological factors like urine pH and exact liver enzyme levels are unknown.

Why Probability Matters More Than "Time"

Most online calculators use a single, linear formula to guess when you will be clean. This is scientifically flawed because EtG elimination is not linear—it varies wildly based on kidney function and genetics.

Our Methodology: Monte Carlo Simulation

Instead of giving you one guess, this tool runs 1,000 separate simulations using a range of biological half-lives (1.7h to 4.3h).

  • The Conservative Estimate: Represents the 90th percentile (slower clearance), giving you a safer buffer.
  • The Optimistic Estimate: Represents the 10th percentile (fast clearance), usually for athletes or those with high metabolic rates.

The Dilution Trap

Warning: Drinking gallons of water to "flush" the system often backfires. If your Creatinine levels drop below 20mg/dL, the lab will flag the sample as "Dilute." For probation and court tests, a Dilute result is often treated exactly the same as a Positive result.